By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS – Will the Arab Spring eventually reach Saudi Arabia? This question seems to be on everybody’s mind, from think-tanks in the United States to traditional cafes in Damascus and Baghdad.
Critics of Saudi Arabia are divided when it comes to the answer. Some respond with an affirmative “Absolutely,” claiming that the oil-rich kingdom cannot remain immune to the popular movements sweeping through Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Syria.
Its women are oppressed, they claim, and so is its small Shi’ite population. A rising generation of Saudi princes are fed up with tolerating aged monarchs from the House of Saud, waiting for achance to prop themselves on the throne of Riyadh.
Young people are restless for change in Saudi Arabia, just like everywhere else in the Arab world, and radicalism is on the rise in a country that gave birth to Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda.
Other Saudi-watchers shake their heads when answering the question, claiming that the US – a traditional ally of the House of Saud – would never allow it to fall.
The truth, however, is by far more complicated than a “yes” or “no” answer. True, unrest has already hit Saudi Arabia, and true, the US cannot tolerate radical change in Riyadh, but the US doesn’t hold Arab masses by remote control and cannot get Saudis to riot – if they don’t want to.
King Abdullah, aged 87, knows what it takes to please young Saudis. With swift moves, he has managed, for now, to keep a job bequeathed to him and his brothers by their father, the kingdom’s founder, King Abdul Aziz. In March, shortly after the collapse of Saudi Arabia’s ally, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, in what was seen as a pre-emptive measure, King Abdullah ordered a massive increase in spending, up to $130 billion over the next decade, on measures like affordable housing for young Saudis.
Many young newly married couples have complained that it was becoming increasingly difficult to buy a house in Saudi Arabia. Abdullah additionally raised wages in the public sector and pledged more public sector jobs. Critics immediately accused him of “bribing” his citizens, but the king did what was required from him to keep his people happy.
Abdullah realized that times had changed since he was a young man in the 1940s, and that social media networks like Facebook and Twitter had completely revolutionized not only Saudi Arabia but the Arab and Muslim World at large. The handwriting had been on the wall, after all, since demonstrations began in Tunisia last December.
In Saudi Arabia, it immediately triggered an online campaign demanding major political and economic reform. In early February, 40 women demonstrated for the release of prisoners held without trial in Saudi jail. This was repeated in March in al-Qatif, al-Awamiyah, and Riyadh.
Demonstrators called for a “day of rage” on March 11, but it was severely suppressed by authorities. It is always painful for any leader to grant concessions under pressure, and Abdullah managed to make those concessions at the right time, before they became too painful and before riots snowballed, taking Saudi Arabia down the path of Egypt and Bahrain.
Abdullah wanted the Saudis to see him as part of the solution in Saudi Arabia, rather than as part of the problem, as was the case with Mubarak, for example.
At the weekend, King Abdullah took his reforms a step forward by granting Saudi women the right to vote and become members in the shura council, for the first time ever in Saudi history.
The Riyadh-based council is a powerful 150-member assembly, appointed by the king to advise on legislation. Opening it to women must have taken a lot of thinking, and courage, from the king, knowing that this would unleash hell on him from traditional and conservatives both within his family and in the clerical community of Saudi Arabia.
“We refuse to marginalize the role of women in Saudi society in every field of work,” King Abdullah said on state television, adding that empowering women would help empower the nation as a whole. This in itself is groundbreaking in the world’s strongest theocracy, where women are strictly segregated in public, forced to cover themselves when out, are separated from men at schools, restaurants, banks and work.
Famously, they cannot drive in Saudi Arabia, and cannot assume political jobs that are now open to both sexes throughout the world, like foreign minister or prime minister.
In 2009, he turned a deaf ear to all critics, establishing the first co-ed university in the kingdom, carrying his name. He then appointed Nora Bin Abdullah al-Fayez as the first deputy minister in Saudi Arabia. A Utah State University graduate, she had served as director general of the women’s sector of the Institute of Public Administration since 1993. Additionally she had also worked as professor at King Saud University between 1989 and 1995.
The new reforms will go into effect in the elections scheduled for 2015. They might not yield immediate results, given the resistance that such a decree would face from traditionalists and conservative Saudis who would now allow their daughter, sister or wife to campaign for public office.
When Abdullah’s brother King Saud introduced public education for women in 1960, Saudi society frowned on the decree and it took years for men to send their daughters to school.
That is why although the decree has been warmly received by a majority of Saudis, others are arguing that the timetable for their implementation is too long, asking Abdullah to put his words into action. They are demanding early elections where women are allowed to vote and run for office.
Others are saying that the step is too little too late, claiming that Saudi Arabia by now should have long allowed women the right to sit on the shura council.
The real reforms needed for 2011, they claim, are to make the entire shura council an elected body, rather than one appointed by the king.
Others are posing a simpler question, asking how women can campaign for office if they cannot even be allowed to drive.
King Abdullah actually went one step further from both loyalists and critics in Saudi Arabia, claiming that Saudi women can now change whatever legislation they want – including the world’s last standing driving ban on women – once they enter the shura council and other government bodies.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian university professor, historian, and editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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