The fear and fury that have gripped the Alt-Media Community since Trump’s announcement yesterday that he was pulling out of the Iran deal are totally misplaced and triggered by a lack of understanding over what the most likely consequences of this move will be.
Confusion, Nothing But Confusion
From a cursory glance at social media, it looks like the entire Alt-Media Community is suffering from severe bouts of fear and fury in equal measure after Trump’s predicted announcement that he’ll be pulling the US out of the Iranian nuclear deal, with people truly terrified about what will come next. Some, utterly shocked by the disappointment that this move brings, have expressed themselves in insincere and slightly snarky ways by pretending to feel sorry for the US’ international reputation while nevertheless consoling one another with wishful thinking about how the deal that many of them lauded nearly three years ago apparently wasn’t even all that much in Iran’s interests.
Others, however, are more nuanced, having warned from the beginning that this would happen because of an old scenario plan by the Brookings Institute that called for a deal to be offered to Iran and then broken in order to manufacture widespread public consent for a forthcoming war against the Islamic Republic. That analysis has its merits in principle, but it exaggerates the influence that the masses have over the US and other Western “deep states” (permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies) and is therefore impractical. While the manipulation of public opinion is important, it isn’t the ultimate determinant over whether a war goes ahead or not.
The Cold, Hard Truth
In any case, the US and its allies are already in a state of Hybrid War against Iran that has gone largely unnoticed by most observers because it oscillates between Color Revolution and Unconventional Warfare pressure like was originally observed by the author in his July 2016 analysis about “The US-Saudi Plan To Prompt An Iranian Pullback From Syria”. That piece was published a full year after he correctly predicted immediately after the nuclear deal was signed that a forthcoming Republican President would scrap it in his Sputnik article about “How The Next US President Could Spoil The Iran Deal For Everyone”, which in hindsight has proven prescient in arguing why Trump doesn’t believe that the agreement works in America’s interests.
Accordingly, that’s why the author celebrated Trump’s victory and declared that “Iranians Should Be Thankful For Trump” because at least he’s sincere enough to let them know that the US was never really their “friend”. It was thought that this revelation would give a boost to the “principalist/conservative” faction of the Iranian “deep state” that’s continuously vying with their “reformist/moderate” rivals for influence, but it ultimately didn’t matter during last year’s elections. Now that Trump withdrew from the deal, though, it might make all the difference when it comes to Iran’s grand strategy since it’s clear that the US and its regional allies are pulling out all the stops to prevent Iran from entrenching its Resistance influence west of its borders.
From Bad News To Good News
On the surface, that realization coupled with the recognition of the low-intensity Hybrid War being waged against the Islamic Republic sound like bad news to the casual observer, as do the consequences of more American sanctions against the country and any foreign company accused (without evidence) of supposedly aiding its nuclear (energy) program. Any dreams of a “détente” between the US and Iran as envisioned by the Obama-era “deep state” are now irreversibly shattered, but that in and of itself could be seen as a positive development for both sides, especially the Iranian one because it opens up a wealth of new strategic opportunities.
Here are the most important reasons why the US’ withdrawal from the Iranian deal should be celebrated and not scorned:
Iran No Longer Has Any Illusions About American Sincerity Or Weakness:
The Alt-Media dogma that America was behaving sincerely towards Iran and acting from a position of weakness is totally discredited because it’s now clear that the US was insincere about its intentions the entire time and that it felt powerful enough to unilaterally withdraw from the deal in spite of the rest of the rest of the world’s condemnation (except “Israel” and the Gulf States).
The Rest Of The World Still Respects The Deal:
Although American companies such as Boeing will lose out on billions of dollars’ worth of deals (which they could simply make up through future military contracts, some of which might be paid by the billions in seized Iranian funds that the US still holds), this just means that others can take their place, though provided that they have the courage to resist the US’ expected sanctions threats against them.
Iran Is More Reliant On Russia Than Ever:
On one hand, Russia represents an irreplaceable “pressure valve” for Iran through their new free trade agreement which will provide unparalleled relief during these challenging times, but on the other, any forthcoming “New Détente” between the US and Russia could see Moscow “managing” Tehran as the “good cop” of this “duo” (like during the mid-2000s pre-New Cold War era) and “encouraging” various “compromises”.
The Islamic Republic Will Reorient Its Strategic Focus Eastward:
Faced with increasing pressure along its western flank (possibly due in part to Russia “convincing” Syria to seek the “phased withdrawal” of the IRGC and Hezbollah as part of Moscow’s “balancing” strategy), Iran will have no choice but to reconceptualize its role in Eurasia by pivoting eastward towards Pakistan and Central Asia as it seeks to reorient its grand strategy.
The Golden Ring Might Finally Be Created:
The five multipolar Great Powers of Eurasia – Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey – could deepen their comprehensive integrational connectivity as a result of Tehran’s eastern pivot and Beijing’s New Silk Roads in order to “circle the wagons” out of collective self-interest and thus lay the tangible foundation for building the fabled “Golden Ring” of supercontinental stability.
This article was originally published on Eurasia Future.
Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.
Featured image is from Russia News Now.